Archive · Round 3
Published 25 Sep 2026
This is the previous board, kept up so the week is still readable. The current board is Week 8. Entertainment commentary, not personalized betting advice.
Thursday Night: ATL @ GB, our three-leg read
Round 3
Eight reads in three tiers. Board posted for Round 3 — entertainment only. Eight reads, three tiers. Each one stands alone — commentary, not a wager instruction.
Where it agrees
The numbers and the matchups agree most here. Start with these three. Each one stands alone.
SF over ARI
ARI
1448
Elo · #25
-12
Points differential
SF · Side
1592
Elo · #3
+42
Points differential
The big names are healthy and playing, so San Francisco should feast against this Arizona team.
Risk · Injuries. That's the 49ers' history, but it isn't a flag this week.
Open write-up
KC at MIA
KC · Side
1536
Elo · #11
+24
Points differential
MIA
1434
Elo · #29
-36
Points differential
Kansas City is good. Miami is hot trash.
Risk · Humid road trip.
Open write-up
BUF over LAC
LAC
1447
Elo · #27
-24
Points differential
BUF · Side
1612
Elo · #2
+15
Points differential
Buffalo is dominant at home against a Chargers team that has started 0-2.
Risk · No major injury or conditions flag this week.
Open write-up
Thinner reads
The reads get thinner after the top three. Each one still stands alone.
SEA at WSH
SEA · Side
1651
Elo · #1
+27
Points differential
WSH
1447
Elo · #26
-19
Points differential
Seattle is the top team on Elo. Washington has started 0-2.
Risk · Darnold/Lock starter decision by Friday. Washington starts Marcus Mariota (Daniels out).
Open write-up
Thursday night
GB over ATL
ATL
1423
Elo · #31
-38
Points differential
GB · Side
1514
Elo · #16
-14
Points differential
Green Bay's home opener against an Atlanta team that's 0-2 and has barely scored. Penix's first start back from a knee reconstruction, on a short week.
Risk · Without WR Jayden Reed and G Aaron Banks.
Open write-up
CIN at PIT
CIN · Side
1543
Elo · #10
+20
Points differential
PIT
1505
Elo · #17
-10
Points differential
Cincinnati is 2-0 and should be able to run the ball on a Pittsburgh defense that's been soft against the run.
Risk · Road game; WR Iosivas on IR.
Open write-up
Early signal
It's early in the season, so this is early signal. Don't treat the Watch List like the Top Three.
LV at NO
LV · Side
1466
Elo · #21
+26
Points differential
NO
1491
Elo · #18
+6
Points differential
Elo still has New Orleans slightly ahead, but Las Vegas has climbed fast and leads the points differential.
Risk · Elo still has New Orleans slightly ahead.
Open write-up
PHI at CHI
PHI · Side
1559
Elo · #8
+6
Points differential
CHI
1531
Elo · #13
+16
Points differential
The numbers split. Elo backs Philadelphia, but Chicago has the better points differential.
Risk · Chicago QB not named yet.
Open write-up
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