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NBA · 2026-27 · ACDT

Green Light / Yellow Light

Opening week · Wed 21 Oct – Tue 27 Oct

Seven days, grouped by Adelaide time. Green Light is an adjusted point-differential gap of 10 or more. Yellow Light is a gap from 6 to under 10. The pick is the team with the better adjusted PD. Games under 6 are not picks.

Running tally

Green 0-0, Yellow 0-0

Hits–misses. A tick means the pick team won. A cross means a miss. Pending days stay out of the tally, and final scores appear once that day's games finish.

Adjusted PD

Adjusted PD currently uses 100% of 2025-26 point differential per game, and is recomputed the day before each slate.

Adjusted PD is this season's point differential per game, blended with last season's. The blend (this season / last season) is 0/100 before any games, 30/70 after 3, 50/50 after 7, 70/30 after 10, and 80/20 from 15. Home court is league-wide only, with no team-specific edge. Band rates are historical, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26), not predictions.

Wed 21 Oct

Opening night

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Yellow Light

Pending

76ers @ Knicks

9:30am ACDT

Pick
Knicks
Gap
6.51
Band
6-8 · 69%

Knicks +6.33 · 76ers -0.18

Historical hit rate for the 6-8 band: 69%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Thu 22 Oct

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Green Light

Pending

Hornets @ Nets

10:00am ACDT

Pick
Hornets
Gap
14.82
Band
10+ · 79%

Hornets +4.83 · Nets -9.99

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

  • Road pick: CHA is the away team (league home win rate ~.54-.58 per DataForge home-court study)

    NBA schedule

  • CHA traded LaMelo Ball (to MIN) and Miles Bridges (to PHX): two of their top-3 minute players in 2025-26 (team data). Added Naz Reid, Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, Dennis Schröder

    NBA.com offseason tracker

  • CHA day-to-day: Kon Knueppel (hamstring, top 2025-26 minutes player) and Coby White (calf) with no timetable per coach Charles Lee; Grayson Allen (knee), Grant Williams (hamstring) also DTD

    ESPN injuries

  • BKN added Julius Randle; lost Nic Claxton

    NBA.com offseason tracker

Green Light

Pending

Mavericks @ Rockets

11:00am ACDT

Pick
Rockets
Gap
10.73
Band
10+ · 79%

Rockets +5.22 · Mavericks -5.51

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Green Light

Pending

Kings @ Clippers

1:00pm ACDT

Pick
Clippers
Gap
11.13
Band
10+ · 79%

Clippers +1.13 · Kings -10.00

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

  • LAC traded Kawhi Leonard (to TOR) and John Collins: two of their top-3 minute players in 2025-26

    NBA.com offseason tracker

  • LAC OUT to start season: Brandon Ingram (partially torn Achilles), Bradley Beal (knee), Max Strus (foot), Niederhauser, Jordan Miller

    ESPN injuries

  • SAC: Ben Simmons OUT (season, Achilles); Malik Monk DTD (ankle); Cardwell, Raynaud OUT

    ESPN injuries

Yellow Light

Pending

Bulls @ Raptors

10:00am ACDT

Pick
Raptors
Gap
8.04
Band
8-10 · 72%

Raptors +2.83 · Bulls -5.21

Historical hit rate for the 8-10 band: 72%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Fri 23 Oct

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Yellow Light

Pending

Nuggets @ Thunder

12:00pm ACDT

Pick
Thunder
Gap
6.00
Band
6-8 · 69%

Thunder +11.15 · Nuggets +5.15

Historical hit rate for the 6-8 band: 69%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Sat 24 Oct

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Green Light

Pending

Raptors @ Wizards

9:30am ACDT

Pick
Raptors
Gap
14.81
Band
10+ · 79%

Raptors +2.83 · Wizards -11.98

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Yellow Light

Pending

Trail Blazers @ Kings

12:30pm ACDT

Pick
Trail Blazers
Gap
9.71
Band
8-10 · 72%

Trail Blazers -0.29 · Kings -10.00

Historical hit rate for the 8-10 band: 72%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

  • Road pick: POR is the away team (league home win rate ~.54-.58 per DataForge home-court study)

    NBA schedule

  • POR added Ja Morant; Shaedon Sharpe OUT (~6 months, meniscus); Jrue Holiday DTD (hand)

    NBA.com offseason trackerESPN injuries

  • SAC: Ben Simmons OUT (season, Achilles); Malik Monk DTD (ankle); Cardwell, Raynaud OUT

    ESPN injuries

Sun 25 Oct

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Green Light

Pending

Nets @ Cavaliers

10:00am ACDT

Pick
Cavaliers
Gap
14.10
Band
10+ · 79%

Cavaliers +4.11 · Nets -9.99

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Green Light

Pending

Spurs @ Mavericks

10:30am ACDT

Pick
Spurs
Gap
13.81
Band
10+ · 79%

Spurs +8.30 · Mavericks -5.51

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Yellow Light

Pending

Bucks @ 76ers

10:00am ACDT

Pick
76ers
Gap
6.03
Band
6-8 · 69%

76ers -0.18 · Bucks -6.21

Historical hit rate for the 6-8 band: 69%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

  • MIL on 2nd night of a back-to-back (the opponent)

    NBA schedule

  • Rest disadvantage: MIL (opponent)

    NBA schedule

  • PHI 2025-26 PD (-0.18) predates LeBron James + Jaylen Brown arriving; Paul George, Oubre, Grimes gone. Prior PD likely understates PHI

    NBA.com offseason tracker

  • PHI per official report 20 Oct: Hukporti OUT (season), Barlow OUT (back stress reaction, ESPN: 2+ weeks), Fall OUT; Simons, Wade, Bona QUESTIONABLE

    NBA injury report, 20 OctESPN injuries

  • MIL traded Giannis Antetokounmpo (to MIA); added Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel'el Ware. Prior PD (-6.21) is a weak guide

    NBA.com offseason tracker

Yellow Light

Pending

Wizards @ Bulls

10:30am ACDT

Pick
Bulls
Gap
6.77
Band
6-8 · 69%

Bulls -5.21 · Wizards -11.98

Historical hit rate for the 6-8 band: 69%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Yellow Light

Pending

Pelicans @ Nuggets

11:30am ACDT

Pick
Nuggets
Gap
9.65
Band
8-10 · 72%

Nuggets +5.15 · Pelicans -4.50

Historical hit rate for the 8-10 band: 72%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Mon 26 Oct

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Green Light

Pending

Lakers @ Jazz

7:30am ACDT

Pick
Lakers
Gap
10.19
Band
10+ · 79%

Lakers +1.76 · Jazz -8.43

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Green Light

Pending

Clippers @ Thunder

9:30am ACDT

Pick
Thunder
Gap
10.02
Band
10+ · 79%

Thunder +11.15 · Clippers +1.13

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

  • OKC traded Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe. Official report 20 Oct: Sorber, Topic, Oweh OUT (Holmgren and Wallace no longer listed)

    NBA.com offseason trackerNBA injury report, 20 Oct

  • LAC traded Kawhi Leonard (to TOR) and John Collins: two of their top-3 minute players in 2025-26

    NBA.com offseason tracker

  • LAC OUT to start season: Brandon Ingram (partially torn Achilles), Bradley Beal (knee), Max Strus (foot), Niederhauser, Jordan Miller

    ESPN injuries

Yellow Light

Pending

Pistons @ 76ers

10:00am ACDT

Pick
Pistons
Gap
8.34
Band
8-10 · 72%

Pistons +8.16 · 76ers -0.18

Historical hit rate for the 8-10 band: 72%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Tue 27 Oct

Ticks, crosses, and final scores show once this day's games finish.

Green Light

Pending

Wizards @ Hornets

9:30am ACDT

Pick
Hornets
Gap
16.81
Band
10+ · 79%

Hornets +4.83 · Wizards -11.98

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

  • CHA traded LaMelo Ball (to MIN) and Miles Bridges (to PHX): two of their top-3 minute players in 2025-26 (team data). Added Naz Reid, Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, Dennis Schröder

    NBA.com offseason tracker

  • CHA day-to-day: Kon Knueppel (hamstring, top 2025-26 minutes player) and Coby White (calf) with no timetable per coach Charles Lee; Grayson Allen (knee), Grant Williams (hamstring) also DTD

    ESPN injuries

  • WAS changed a lot: No.1 pick AJ Dybantsa (DTD ankle), Deandre Ayton, Khris Middleton added; Trae Young re-signed. 2025-26 PD (-11.98) may overstate their weakness

    NBA.com offseason trackerESPN injuriesNBA.com schedule

Green Light

Pending

Bulls @ Celtics

10:00am ACDT

Pick
Celtics
Gap
12.91
Band
10+ · 79%

Celtics +7.70 · Bulls -5.21

Historical hit rate for the 10+ band: 79%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Yellow Light

Pending

Mavericks @ Heat

10:00am ACDT

Pick
Heat
Gap
7.84
Band
6-8 · 69%

Heat +2.33 · Mavericks -5.51

Historical hit rate for the 6-8 band: 69%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

Yellow Light

Pending

Suns @ Thunder

10:30am ACDT

Pick
Thunder
Gap
9.69
Band
8-10 · 72%

Thunder +11.15 · Suns +1.46

Historical hit rate for the 8-10 band: 72%, from five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26).

Injury red flags

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