AwayCLE
LeanTB
Sun 1:00 ET
First 3Model lean TB
ConfidenceHigh
B5 trash tape on CLE. Diff builds a wall; the model stays on TB.
Archive · Round 2
Week 2 model board
This is the previous board, kept up so the week is still readable. The current board is Round 3. Entertainment commentary, not personalized betting advice.
Round 2 / Week 2 archive. Leans and confidence bands are model commentary for entertainment. Not a pick sheet and not betting advice. BUC / Elo / +/- notes point at the Rankings ladders. No odds. No bookmaker links. Models can be wrong.
Round 2
Week 2 model board
Model commentary for the Sept. 17–21 slate. Board posted for Week 2 — entertainment only. Leans and confidence bands are model commentary — not personalized betting advice.
The board
First 3
The headline Week 2 card. Visitors should read this trio first.
AwayMIA
LeanSF
Sun 4:25 ET
First 3Model lean SF
ConfidenceMedium
Cellar MIA in the Week 2 stack. Niners stars are intact on this board — health watch stays open, not a side flip.
AwayNO
LeanBAL
Sun 1:00 ET
First 3Model lean BAL
ConfidenceMedium
Elo and Diff both rank BAL up the hierarchy. Flowers listed DTD is a softener only.
Secondary
Alt 3
Depth only — not the headline three. Same entertainment framing.
AwayIND
LeanKC
Sun 8:20 ET
DepthModel lean KC
ConfidenceMedium
Depth card. Hierarchy still points at KC; this is not a First 3 lean.
AwayDET
LeanBUF
Thu 8:15 ET
DepthModel lean BUF
ConfidenceMedium
Thursday depth card. BUF holds the model lean over DET.
LeanPHI
HomeTEN
Sun 1:00 ET
DepthModel lean PHI
ConfidenceMedium
LT carousel is the featured depth note. Model still leans PHI.
Also on slate
On the board, not First 3
These leans are on the Week 2 model board. They are not the opening card.
LeanCIN
HomeHOU
Sun 1:00 ET
Also on slateModel lean CIN
ConfidenceMedium
Also on the Week 2 board, not a First 3 card. CIN holds the lean at Houston.
AwayNYG
LeanLAR
Mon 8:15 ET
Also on slateModel lean LAR
ConfidenceMedium
Giants reality-check. The model keeps LAR; NYG do not climb this week's stack.
Do-not-board
Pass list
No-plays. The model does not post a lean here — not hidden picks.
- PassCARATL
Sun 1:00 ET
- PassMINCHI
Sun 1:00 ET
- PassPITNE
Sun 1:00 ET
- PassGBNYJ
Sun 1:00 ET
- PassJAXDEN
Sun 4:05 ET
- PassLVLAC
Sun 4:05 ET
- PassSEAARI
Sun 4:25 ET
- PassWASDAL
Sun 4:25 ET
How to read it
- First 3 is the headline card — TB, SF, and BAL. Start there.
- Model lean is which side the model prefers in the matchup — not a wager instruction.
- Confidence is a band (low / medium / high) for how stable that lean was in the sim. It is not a probability sold as a sure thing.
- Do-not-board games are passes. The model does not post a lean on those matchups.
- Notes are short model commentary. B5, cellar, Elo, and Diff point at the Rankings desk. Entertainment framing. Models miss.
What this is not
Not a tipster service. Not financial or gambling advice. NFL betting analytics here means model commentary for entertainment — we do not publish bookmaker odds or tell anyone how to bet. If you want the legal language, it lives on Disclaimers and in the footer of every page.